As the Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated, humans have a complicated relationship with uncertainty. A little uncertainty can be exciting, such as not knowing the ending of a thriller movie. A lot of uncertainty makes us feel anxious, such as not knowing when or if our lives will return to normal.
This dislike of uncertainty has evolutionary origins. Our brain’s ability to recognize patterns helps us predict future events, which gives us a survival advantage. When our minds can’t detect a recognizable pattern, we have difficulty anticipating future events and we experience stress. When we resolve that uncertainty, our brain releases dopamine, creating a sense of pleasure.
These opposing sensations of feeling anxious during uncertainty and pleasure once we resolve it drives us to seek certainty and avoid ambiguity. Researchshows we dislike uncertainty so much that if we have to choose between a scenario in which we know we will receive electric shocks versus a situation in which the shocks will occur randomly, we’ll select the more painful option of certain shocks. Similarly, other research has found we prefer bosses who are always unfair to those who are sporadically unjust.
How We React to Uncertainty
Our desire for certainty is a primary human motive; when we experience uncertainty, we take steps to resolve it. The problem is that many of these actions aren’t rational or even helpful. Just think of all the people who ran out to buy toilet paper on the eve of shelter-in-place orders when the more practical response would have been to get a haircut. Research shows this type of panic isn’t unusual. We tend to react to uncertain times by:
Seeking cognitive closure
Our aversion to uncertainty creates a need for immediate answers. We achieve this resolution by seizing on the first possible explanation that fits our worldview. We then hold on to that explanation even if contrary information surfaces. First proposed by psychologists Arie Kruglanski and Donna Webster, these responses are known as “seizing” and “freezing.” The need for cognitive closure is apparent in the different ways people responded to COVID-19. As Dr. Kruglanski wrote recently: “Under conditions of diffuse uncertainty, people are drawn, as if by a magnet, to simplistic solutions and black-and-white reasoning. Some gravitate to the pole of denial that nothing is wrong, others to that of utter panic, the belief that the worst is sure to come.”
Becoming group-centric
According to the Uncertainty-Identity Theorydeveloped by social psychologist Michael Hogg, we gravitate towards people like us when we feel uncertain. Being with others with similar worldviews is comforting. However, this can pose a danger to society as groups with homogeneous views can lead to radical thinking and extremism. We’ve seen that occur in the pandemic with a proliferation of conspiracy theories like the contention that 5G mobile phone technology is causing the spread of Covid-19. During uncertain times, we also tend to view outsiders with greater hostility. One example is the European witch hunts, during which as many as 500,000 women were put to death over a few centuries. These supposed witches were blamed for droughts, bad crops, disease, and all sorts of events that defied explanation.
Turning into information junkies
Uncertainty can make us feel like we must be missing something, and we respond by seeking more information. We get a hit of dopamine when we receive that information, which makes our brains crave more. Sometimes this search can be helpful when it fills a gap in knowledge and leads to better-informed decisions. But so many things in life are unknowable, and no amount of information will change that.
Relying on experts
When wrestling with uncertainty, we seek out experts in hopes that they’ll have the crystal ball we seem to be lacking. Because of their experience and learning, some experts are good at spotting patterns and helping us understand what might happen. But as I’ve written before, economists typically do a poor job of forecasting the stock market, and political scientists provide almost zero value in predicting geopolitical events.
Better Ways to Respond to Uncertainty
These coping mechanisms can create a false sense of certainty that leads to poor decisions. The following five strategies are much more effective:
1. Recognize your dislike of uncertainty. The first step to easing your discomfort with the unknown is to recognize that your quest for certainty is hardwired. Knowing these reactions are bound to happen can help you notice when you’re seizing and freezing, associating only with likeminded people, becoming an information junkie, and clinging to expert predictions.
2. Learn to sit with discomfort. Uncertainty is uncomfortable, and our desire to make it go away can feel as strong as a craving. A helpful strategy is to realize when we are experiencing uncertainty, acknowledge it, and do nothing. As therapist Jeff Bell and Shala Nicely write in Psychology Today, “The secret to living with uncertainty is learning to sit with the discomfort of uncertainty.” This is easier said than done but can feel like second nature with practice.
3. Focus on what you can control. Another helpful way to manage discomfort is to recognize what is and is not within your sphere of influence. This helps you avoid wasting your efforts on futile activities. For example, investors can choose an investment discipline to follow, but they cannot control or predict future market performance.
4. Build in a margin of safety. In the face of uncertainty, having a buffer creates a sense of security. With investment portfolios, this means having enough cash and safe assets to ride out the storm. In business, it requires having sufficient cash stores and avoiding too much leverage. Building a margin of safety requires the discipline to take precautions even in good times when it feels unnecessary.
5. Be skeptical of those who seem certain. At the end of 2019, most financial experts were predicting that 2020 would be another strong economic year. They didn’t know that a pandemic would render those predictions worthless. This is why I often advocate ignoring economic and stock market forecasts. It’s better to have an all-weather portfolio than to make investment decisions based on fallible expert opinions.
Unanswered Questions
Living through a global pandemic feels like wrestling with the mother of all uncertainty. Are we past the worst of it? When will we have a vaccine? Will the economy fall into a depression? What will the stock market do?
We don’t have answers to any of these questions. That’s the bad news. The good news is this time also presents the mother of all opportunities to practice learning to live with uncertainty. And you’re in very good company.
This article originally appeared on Forbes.
