(Yahoo!Finance) - For the last several months, Americans have nervously anticipated a recession as the market has fallen more than 20% since the beginning of the year.
According to one longtime tech investor, the market could still recover but will likely face "systemic obstacles" on that journey.
"None of us has a crystal ball, but it feels to me as though what's going on now is the beginning, the middle, or something of a generational bear market," Roger McNamee, an early Facebook and Google investor, told Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer during an episode of Influencers (video above).
"Every 20 years or so," McNamee continued, "the market shakes a lot of extreme ideas out. And it feels to me as though that's what's going on here, that we're down far enough that a lot of things reasonably should be able to come back.”
At the same time, he added, there are barriers that stand in the way of a full economic recovery. These include inflation, supply chain disruptions, the coronavirus pandemic, and volatility with oil prices amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Inflation in the U.S. recently reached 9.1%, the highest since November 1981, and the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates multiple times in response. The combination of high interest rates and inflation could make the economy difficult for many to navigate, though, McNamee said.
“The rise in interest rates, the rise in inflation are things we haven't had to deal with inside the professional experience of 99% of the people are active in the markets,” he said. “And when you have something that new, the probability that people will not handle it, cleanly, I think is very high.”
Americans are by and large pessimistic about the markets. A recent survey by GOBankingRates found that a whopping 97% are anxious about where the economy is headed.
“That is a stew of uncertainty that the market's going to have to work its way through here, and it doesn't look to me as though we can avoid some period of higher interest rates," McNamee said. "There is certainly a very high risk of the economy having at least a period of recession."
Economists are split over whether or not the U.S. will enter a recession, and even whether the U.S. is in one right now. BNP Paribas Chief Market Strategist Daniel Morris told Yahoo Finance that he doesn't expect a recession until next year. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs economists have said there's only a 30% chance of one developing in 2023.
"I think if you're an equity investor, this is going to be a really challenging period of time," McNamee said.
By Dylan Croll
