(Bloomberg) - Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — among the most prominent bearish voices on US equities — warns the rally in tech stocks that’s exceeded 20% isn’t sustainable and that the sector will return to new lows.
The Nasdaq 100 has soared into a bull market as investors fled economically sensitive sectors like banks following the collapse of several US lenders. Wilson said this rotation is taking place partly because tech is being viewed as a traditional defensive sector, though he disagrees with that thesis and sees utilities, staples and health care as having the better risk-reward profile.
“Tech is actually more pro-cyclical and bottoms coincidently with the broader market in bear markets,” the strategist — who ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey after he correctly predicted the selloff in stocks — wrote in a note.
“We advise waiting for a durable low in the broader market before adding to tech more aggressively as the sector typically experiences a period of strong outperformance post trough — a time when its cyclicality works in its favor on the upside,” he said.
Moreover, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will soon end its monetary tightening will leave investors disappointed, Wilson said. “We don’t view the recently expanded bank funding program as a form of quantitative easing that will ultimately be stimulative for risk assets,” he wrote.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Mislav Matejka also said tech “might not be a great place to position in structurally anymore.” The sector will stop strongly outperforming due to earnings risks, unattractive valuations and very high price relatives in the long-term context, leaving the strategists neutral.
Matejka agrees with Wilson that defensive sectors are better-positioned than other stocks from here. Litigation risk is largely known for health care, while utilities are likely to benefit from less regulatory uncertainty ahead and staples might be supported by cheaper valuations and a better margin outlook in the second half, he said.
A slump in tech stocks could significantly affect markets after the sector was the key driver of the S&P 500 Index’s 3.5% gain in March despite concerns that a banking crisis could lead to a steep deterioration in growth. Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. were the biggest gainers in the benchmark last month while banks were the key laggards.
(Updates with JPMorgan strategists’ views on defensive stocks in the seventh paragraph.)
By Farah Elbahrawy
