(Bloomberg) - The appetite of Federal Reserve policymakers for another large interest-rate cut in November may come into better focus in the coming week as Jerome Powell addresses economists and the government issues new employment numbers.
The Fed chair will discuss the US economic outlook at a National Association for Business Economics conference on Monday. At the end of the week, the September jobs report is expected to show a healthy, yet moderating, labor market.
Payrolls in the world’s largest economy are seen rising 146,000, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That’s similar to the August increase and would leave three-month average job growth near its weakest since mid-2019.
The jobless rate probably held at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are projected to have risen 3.8% from a year earlier.
Recent labor unrest suggests Friday’s jobs report may be the last clean reading of the US employment market before Fed policymakers meet in early November. Boeing Co. factory workers walked off the job in mid-September, and dockworkers on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are threatening to strike from Oct. 1.
In addition to the heavyweight monthly payrolls report, job openings data on Tuesday are expected to show August vacancies held close to the lowest level since the start of 2021. Economists will also focus on the quit rate and on dismissals to gauge the extent of cooling in labor demand.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“We expect a robust headline print for September nonfarm payrolls, which could even revive talk of “no landing” for the US economy. But we think the headline figure will overstate labor-market strength, partly because of overstatements related to the BLS’s ‘birth-death’ model, and partly due to temporary seasonal effects.”
Industry surveys will also help shed light on the private-sector hiring. The Institute for Supply Management releases its September manufacturing survey on Tuesday and services index two days later — both of which include measures of employment.
By Vince Golle and Craig Stirling
