“Turbulence.” “Ongoing volatility and deep uncertainty.” “Beyond anything I could have imagined.”
The tone from Wall Street CEOs during Friday’s earnings calls was notably cautious—even bleak—despite a strong set of first-quarter results from firms like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock. Their muted commentary reflects growing unease over the broader economic trajectory, especially as wealth managers and RIAs navigate shifting investor sentiment, portfolio risk, and asset allocation in light of mounting policy uncertainty.
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley each posted healthy earnings, beating expectations on several key metrics. Meanwhile, BlackRock reported another record in assets under management, further cementing its role as a bellwether for global capital flows. Yet despite these financial wins, none of the firms upgraded their forward guidance. That decision—read by many as strategic caution—suggests revisions may come later in 2025, particularly after the 90-day pause on tariffs imposed by President Trump expires.
The policy environment has shifted rapidly since early April, when sweeping tariffs were announced. While the administration temporarily delayed implementation for most trading partners, the initial impact triggered sharp equity declines, disrupted fixed income markets, and prompted a reassessment of global risk exposure. For RIAs, the policy uncertainty introduces significant challenges in managing client expectations, optimizing tax strategies, and maintaining confidence in long-term planning.
Even the most seasoned financial executives appear unsure how this will all unfold. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, speaking during the firm’s earnings call, described the current economic landscape as “considerable turbulence.” Prior to the call, he personally contacted the bank’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, for an updated forecast.
“I called him this morning,” Dimon explained to analysts. “They’re putting the odds of a recession at about 50-50. So I’ll just refer to that.”
His remarks reflect how difficult it has become even for the largest and best-capitalized institutions to predict macroeconomic direction. For advisors, this volatility demands a proactive approach to risk assessment, particularly in areas like credit exposure, duration sensitivity in fixed income holdings, and equity market overweights.
Inside one firm reporting earnings on Friday, a senior executive noted privately that much of their performance exceeded expectations—but investor focus was squarely on economic risk. “No one wanted to talk about our numbers,” he said. “It’s all about the economy now.”
That sentiment is spreading across the financial services landscape. The steep drop in market confidence that followed Trump’s tariff announcement has recalibrated client behavior across the wealth management value chain. Deal activity has slowed. Consumer sentiment has weakened. Asset flows into risk-on strategies are softening. Many advisors are finding clients more cautious, more cash-heavy, and more focused on liquidity.
Economists across Wall Street have updated forecasts in recent weeks, many now modeling slower GDP growth and stickier inflation. A recession in late 2025 is increasingly seen as a realistic risk scenario.
Still, the banks stopped short of issuing revised earnings guidance. Wells Fargo reaffirmed its expectation for 2025 net interest income to rise by 1% to 3% year over year, though it now projects results will fall on the lower end of that range. JPMorgan maintained its net interest income guidance (excluding markets), and reaffirmed its anticipated net charge-off rate of 3.6% in its cards business.
These data points are encouraging in isolation—but advisors should take note of the broader tone. JPMorgan increased its provision for credit losses to $3.3 billion, up from $2.6 billion last quarter. Morgan Stanley likewise raised its provision to $135 million from $115 million.
These moves are being interpreted not as pessimism, but prudence. In today’s environment, capital discipline and conservative provisioning signal strength—and are likely to resonate with clients looking for resilient financial partners.
Still, the verbal cues from top executives make clear that the uncertainty generated by trade policy is having a material impact on business sentiment. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf described the outlook as one of “continued volatility and uncertainty.” Dimon used the word “turbulence.” BlackRock’s Larry Fink went further, telling analysts the scope of the new tariff regime “went beyond anything I could have imagined in my 49 years in finance.”
That level of concern from the head of the world’s largest asset manager should prompt serious reflection among RIAs and wealth teams. Even if portfolio performance is strong and client engagement remains high, the macro environment is likely to get bumpier before it improves.
Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick echoed this concern, noting during his firm’s earnings call that some clients are already holding back from new transactions or strategic activity until there is greater clarity on trade policy. “The simple truth is that we do not know where trade policy will settle nor what the effects will be on the economy,” he said.
That statement captures the core challenge facing financial advisors in the current moment. Not only is visibility low—market conditions are being driven by executive actions and geopolitical decisions more than by fundamentals. For RIAs, this puts a premium on strategic agility, ongoing communication, and a robust reevaluation of portfolio exposures.
With corporate leadership clearly bracing for more turbulence, advisors should similarly prepare clients for the possibility of additional market stress, yield curve distortions, and policy-induced volatility. Cash management strategies, tactical allocation shifts, and deeper stress testing of portfolios are no longer optional—they are essential.
Equally important is the client experience. With sentiment deteriorating and headlines swinging day-to-day, advisors who overcommunicate and recalibrate expectations will be best positioned to maintain trust. That includes building optionality into investment strategies, reevaluating goals-based planning assumptions, and reinforcing long-term narratives in the face of short-term instability.
There’s no question that Q1 results provide some breathing room. The largest firms remain profitable, capitalized, and—at least for now—confident in their baseline assumptions. But as BlackRock’s Fink and JPMorgan’s Dimon made clear, that confidence is qualified and contingent on how the next few months unfold in Washington and abroad.
For the wealth management community, this is the time to deepen client relationships, refine strategic planning frameworks, and lean into the advisory role more than ever. Clients are navigating unfamiliar terrain, and advisors have a critical role to play as translators of risk, managers of behavior, and stewards of long-term plans.
As one senior banker put it bluntly: “The fundamentals are strong, but no one wants to hear it. It’s all about what happens next.” For RIAs, that’s the opening to lead.
