(Yahoo!Finance) - Maybe President Biden has bottomed out.
A handful of off-year elections brought terrible news for Democrats, with voters rejecting the once-favored Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia, and barely reelecting the Democratic governor in deep-blue New Jersey.
Biden wasn’t on the ballot, per se, but the severe underperformance of two leading Democrats revealed voter disgust with big-government programs Biden and his allies have been touting since Biden took office in January.
But Biden caught two badly needed breaks this week. First, the October jobs report revealed a hiring revival and an economy that might be revving up again. And dithering Democrats in Congress finally muscled through a popular $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, giving Biden a major legislative win. Biden’s approval rating has plunged from a high of 55% to a low of 43% in recent weeks, as the Afghanistan pullout went bad, the Covid Delta variant spread and inflation began rattling consumers. He may now get a modest boost in the polls and a chance to stabilize his listing presidency.
The October jobs report showed employers added a stout 531,000 new jobs last month. There were also upward revisions in the prior two months which make the economy look stronger than once presumed. The average for the last three months is now 336,000 new jobs per month. Since Biden took office, the average is 620,00 new jobs per months. The pace of job growth has slowed, but it may be picking up again with the Covid Delta variant now receding and federal unemployment benefits expired.
The winter may be glum, with people still worried about Covid exposure indoors. But 2022 could be the breakout year many—including Biden—hoped 2021 would be. The newly available Covid vaccine for kids as young as 5 will allow schools to continue crawling back toward normal and bring harried parents some relief. Biden’s new Jan. 4 deadline for larger companies to require employee vaccinations will face legal challenges, but it will also make workplaces safer and reassure some who are still too anxious to return to a job.
The infrastructure bill had been nearly forgotten amid Democratic infighting over a larger social-welfare bill that could cost nearly $2 trillion. The Democrats' inability to pass anything, while promising seemingly everything, contributed to the party's setbacks in the Nov. 2 elections. Liberals in the House had been blocking a vote on the infrastructure bill until party moderates met their demands for lavish spending in the social-welfare bill.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi finally called their bluff, daring the liberal wing to vote down an infrastructure bill Biden views as proof he can fulfill a campaign pledge and negotiate with Republicans. Biden himself called into a meeting of liberal legislators the night of November 5, helping clinch the vote. Even then, it took 13 Republican votes in favor of the bill to put it over the top, because 6 Democrats voted against in. Had Republicans opposed the bill en masse, it would have failed.
Since the Senate already passed the infrastructure bill, it will become law with Biden's signature. Biden will, crow, and for good reason. It’s not easy getting Congress to approve more than $1 trillion for building projects in every state. President Trump tried and failed, even when his fellow Republicans controlled Congress for two years.
Now you'll start to hear about all the helpful projects coming to a thoroughfare near you. That will include $111 billion for traditional infrastructure, $79 billion for power grid upgrades, $66 billion for rail (mostly Amtrak), $65 for broadband installation in unwired areas, and much more. There are no new tax hikes in the bill, which is why some Republicans voted for it. Funding will come from unused Covid relief money and other programs, plus some fishy accounting that’s normal for Congress. The spending will take place over several years, providing a modest but sustained economic boost.
The challenge for Biden now is convincingly declaring victory, while Democrats continue to argue over the social-welfare and green-energy provisions Congress has yet to pass. If Biden had campaigned solely on Covid relief and infrastructure, he would now be able to say he accomplished most of what he set out to do. But his "Build Back Better" program includes much more, and Democrats could still get stuck in a legislative quagmire.
Social spending that seems like a handout is less popular than spending on roads and bridges. And Americans worry about green energy programs that could raise the cost of gasoline and home-heating fuel while endangering jobs. Infrastructure gives Biden a tangible accomplishment, but messaging matters, too. Biden's next test is convincing voters that a major win really is one.
By Rick Newman·Senior Columnist
Rick Newman is the author of four books, including "Rebounders: How Winners Pivot from Setback to Success.
