(MarketWatch) Think 2019 has been hectic? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
According to our call of the day from John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics, 2020 “will be the most volatile year in history” for investors
“The last few weeks marked a turning point in the global economy. It’s more than the trade war. A sense of vulnerability is replacing the previous confidence — and with good reason,” he wrote in his latest market update. “We are vulnerable, and we’ll be lucky to get through the 2020s without major damage.”
Mauldin pointed to supply shocks, the trade war, interest rates, unproductive debt and the mess in Europe as just some of the factors poised to create the perfect storm, but it’s one volatility bomb, in particular, that could blow up best-laid plans.
“Remember when experts said to keep politics out of your investment strategy?” he asked. “We no longer have that choice. Political decisions and election results around the globe now have direct, immediate market consequences.”
Of course, the most consequential of all: The 2020 U.S. election. And Mauldin doesn’t sound too hopeful about any of the scenarios.
“None of the possible outcomes are particularly good. I think the best we can hope for is continued gridlock,” he said. “But between now and November 2020, none of us will know the outcome. Instead, a never-ending stream of poll results will show one side or the other has the upper hand.”
Markets will be a mess, bouncing up and down with each headline, Mauldin warned, and that will inspire politicians and central bankers to react. To “do something.” That something, he said, will probably be the wrong thing.
