President Donald Trump has yet to announce his pick to lead the Federal Reserve even though Janet Yellen’s term ends in February, the New York Times writes. And the field of candidates is wide open, according to a panel of experts surveyed by the publication.
Two Top Contenders, With a Long List of Possibles
The panel puts the best odds on Kevin Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 who’s also worked at the White House during George W. Bush’s presidency, the New York Times writes. His chances for an appointment are high in part because his approach to regulation is similar to the Trump administration’s, according to the New York Times. And Warsh’s father-in-law Ronald Lauder regularly donates to the Republican party and has ties to Trump, according to the publication.
Nonetheless, the chances of Warsh taking over the Fed are only 23%, according to the publication’s 11 experts. The Democrats are likely to oppose Warsh, who doesn’t have an advanced degree in economics, on the grounds that he’s unqualified, too political and responsible for the bank bailouts, the New York Times writes. Warsh had been part of Ben Bernanke’s lead team as it grappled with the financial crisis, according to the publication.
Meanwhile, the panel put the possibility of a Yellen renomination just slightly behind, at 22%. Her odds are bolstered by a tradition of reappointing the Fed chairman put into the role by the opposite party, according to the New York Times. Trump, meanwhile, has criticized Yellen during his campaign but has since softened his stance, saying this summer that “she’s done a good job,” the publication writes. Moreover, reappointing Yellen would be a sign of goodwill toward the Democrats at a time when Trump’s administration negotiating plenty of other issues, according to the New York Times writes.
On the other hand, she’s a liberal and “a cerebral academic serving during the presidency of a bombastic businessman,” the publication writes.
Other contenders include Gary Cohn, the head of the White House National Economic Council and a former Goldman Sachs executive, according to the panel. While he was favored to take over as Fed chairman as recently as July, Cohn likely ruffled Trump’s feathers when he criticized the president’s response to the violence in Charlottesville, Va., the New York Times writes. The publication’s panels put his odds at just 12%.
The list of potential candidates also includes Stanford economist John B. Taylor, who also worked in the George W. Bush White House, and Dean of Columbia Business School Glenn Hubbard, who was Bush’s top economic advisor, according to the publication. Then there’s another former top advisor to Bush, Larry Lindsey, who’s also a former Fed governor and holds a PhD in economics from Harvard, the New York Times writes. But the odds of either of the three taking over the Fed are 8, 7 and 6% respectively, according to the publication’s panel.
The experts also estimate a 5% chance of a nomination for Jerome Powell, a former partner at the private equity firm the Carlyle Group and a current Fed governor. The rest of the contenders, none of whom scored more than a 2% chance of taking the nomination from the New York Times’ panel, include Thomas Hoenig, F.D.I.C. vice chairman, and John Allison, former CEO of BB&T bank.
Trump, of course, could opt for someone else entirely, according to the publication. After all, he weighed several candidates for the Secretary of State post, only to nominate Rex Tillerson as “a bit of an out-of-left-field choice,” the New York Times writes. Perhaps it’s not surprising, then, that the publication’s experts give a 10% chance on “rest of field,” meant to account for anyone not yet considered.
